Every spring, sellers call me wanting to know if it's still a seller's market. Every fall, they call again — more nervous this time — wanting to know if they missed it.
I just pulled six months of closed sales across Bernalillo and Sandoval counties, every closing from March through the first few days of September. The honest answer: it's still a seller's market. It's just not the sprint it was in May.
The Spring Rush Cooled — But It Didn't Break
Closings ramped from 598 in March to 923 in June, then eased to 897 in July and 757 in August. New listings traced almost the identical shape, peaking in July before pulling back.
Closings dropped about 18% from June's peak to August — that's roughly the seasonal pullback we see most years heading into fall, not a market falling apart.
Prices Held Steady — Not Up, Not Down
The median closing price sat in a tight $375,000–$385,000 band the entire summer. Price per square foot barely moved either, holding around $215–$220 from March through August.
Nothing here says values are sliding. Nothing says they're climbing fast, either. Call it a plateau.
Pricing Right Matters More Than It Did in May
Homes priced at market are still closing at essentially full price — the sale-to-list ratio has sat right around 100% every single month this summer. That part hasn't changed.
List at true market value and buyers are still paying it — full price, no discount for a "slower" market.
What has changed is what happens to homes that aren't priced at market. More than half of the homes currently active in the metro have already taken at least one price cut, with a typical reduction around 4%. Days on market for closed sales stretched from 13 days in May and June to 19 days in August.
Buyers are still out there — they're just not chasing every listing the way they were in the spring. Overpricing gets corrected faster now, not slower.
What This Means If You're Thinking About Selling
Supply is still tight — roughly two and a half to three months' worth at the current sales pace, well under the five to six months that usually signals a buyer's market. Sellers still have the advantage.
That advantage now depends on getting the number right from day one, rather than testing high and adjusting down later. Homes under $400,000 are still moving the fastest. The $500,000–$750,000 range is sitting longer than it was in spring and needs a sharper strategy to compete.
Fall isn't a bad time to list. It's just a worse time to overprice.
Wondering what your home would actually sell for right now?
Not what it would've sold for in May — what it's worth today. No obligation, just a straight conversation and current comps for your specific street.